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Poll: Pro-lifers may have edge in future Supreme Court battle
May 12, 2005
By Michael Foust
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--If abortion is a key issue during the next Supreme Court confirmation battle, then pro-lifers may have an edge with the American public, a new Gallup poll suggests.
The poll of 1,005 adults shows that pro-lifers are more likely than pro-choicers to believe that the next Supreme Court justice must agree with them on abortion. Although there is no opening on the court, many observers believe Chief Justice William Rehnquist will step down this summer.
Gallup asked the public "how important" it is that the next nominee to the high court share their views on abortion. Forty-five percent said "very important," 31 percent "somewhat important," 15 percent "not too important" and 8 percent "not important at all."
Among the group saying it is "very important," 53 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice. That could prove significant when pro-life and pro-choice groups ask their constituents to contact their senators.
"Clearly, pro-life supporters have the edge in terms of their interest in the abortion position of future Supreme Court nominees," Gallup's Lydia Saad wrote in an online analysis. "... Theoretically, this should translate into more pro-life communication to members of the U.S. Senate, larger pro-life rallies supporting or opposing a nominee, and more pro-life support at election time."
But Saad added: "[T]he pro-choice contingent that cares about these appointments is not insignificant, and it will undoubtedly wage a pitched battle of its own."
Among all adults, 48 percent say they are pro-choice, 44 percent pro-life. Nevertheless, the pro-life camp appears to have more energy.
Women comprise 61 percent of the "very important" group. Among those women, 55 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice -- a finding that counters claims that women tend to be overwhelmingly pro-choice. Among the men in the "very important" group, 50 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice.
Abortion is at the heart of the current debate over Senate judicial filibusters. In 1973 the Supreme Court, in a 7-2 ruling, issued its landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Since then pro-lifers have been working to see it overturned.
Currently, pro-lifers have three solid votes on the court -- Rehnquist, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. A fourth, Anthony Kennedy, has sided with pro-lifers on some issues. Rehnquist, though, is battling thyroid cancer and may retire this year. Others may follow in the near future. Including Rehnquist, two justices are in their 80s and two more are in their 70s.
Even though a plurality of Americans consider themselves pro-choice, pro-lifers appear to have made progress in the past decade. The partial-birth abortion debate may have played a significant role.
In the poll, 53 percent said abortion should be "legal under certain circumstances," 23 percent "legal under any circumstances" and 22 percent "illegal in all circumstances."
But in September 1995, the numbers were much different -- 31 percent saying abortion should always be legal and only 12 percent saying it should always be illegal. Later that year, the House and Senate passed a bill banning partial-birth abortion, which was vetoed by President Clinton in April 1996.
The debate over the gruesome procedure may have swayed some minds. By July 1996, the numbers began to change, with 25 percent -- a drop of six percentage points -- saying abortion should always be legal. Since then, the "legal under any circumstances" category hasn't reached 30 percent -- even though it was in the 30s in every poll between 1990 and 1995.
Partial-birth abortion is a practice whereby an unborn baby is partially delivered, feet first, until only the head is left in the birth canal. The baby's brains are then suctioned out, killing the child.
Gallup did not mention partial-birth abortion as being a cause for the changing numbers but did note the shift in public position.
"[T]he percentage saying abortion should be illegal in all circumstances has been inching up in the last few years -- from 15 percent in 2000 to 22 percent today -- but this is the first time since 1985 that this extreme anti-abortion view has been essentially at parity with the extreme pro-abortion rights position," Saad wrote.
She added that the country views abortion differently than it did the last time a Republican president nominated a justice for the Supreme Court.
"[T]here is no doubt that the landscape has changed since the last two times a Republican president filled a Supreme Court vacancy -- in 1990 and 1991, when President George H. W. Bush nominated David Souter and Clarence Thomas, respectively," Saad wrote. "Compared to the early 1990s ... Americans today are much less likely to say abortion should be legal under any circumstance, and more likely to say that it should be illegal in all circumstances.[/i]
Poll: Pro-lifers may have edge in future Supreme Court battle
May 12, 2005
By Michael Foust
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--If abortion is a key issue during the next Supreme Court confirmation battle, then pro-lifers may have an edge with the American public, a new Gallup poll suggests.
The poll of 1,005 adults shows that pro-lifers are more likely than pro-choicers to believe that the next Supreme Court justice must agree with them on abortion. Although there is no opening on the court, many observers believe Chief Justice William Rehnquist will step down this summer.
Gallup asked the public "how important" it is that the next nominee to the high court share their views on abortion. Forty-five percent said "very important," 31 percent "somewhat important," 15 percent "not too important" and 8 percent "not important at all."
Among the group saying it is "very important," 53 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice. That could prove significant when pro-life and pro-choice groups ask their constituents to contact their senators.
"Clearly, pro-life supporters have the edge in terms of their interest in the abortion position of future Supreme Court nominees," Gallup's Lydia Saad wrote in an online analysis. "... Theoretically, this should translate into more pro-life communication to members of the U.S. Senate, larger pro-life rallies supporting or opposing a nominee, and more pro-life support at election time."
But Saad added: "[T]he pro-choice contingent that cares about these appointments is not insignificant, and it will undoubtedly wage a pitched battle of its own."
Among all adults, 48 percent say they are pro-choice, 44 percent pro-life. Nevertheless, the pro-life camp appears to have more energy.
Women comprise 61 percent of the "very important" group. Among those women, 55 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice -- a finding that counters claims that women tend to be overwhelmingly pro-choice. Among the men in the "very important" group, 50 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice.
Abortion is at the heart of the current debate over Senate judicial filibusters. In 1973 the Supreme Court, in a 7-2 ruling, issued its landmark Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Since then pro-lifers have been working to see it overturned.
Currently, pro-lifers have three solid votes on the court -- Rehnquist, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. A fourth, Anthony Kennedy, has sided with pro-lifers on some issues. Rehnquist, though, is battling thyroid cancer and may retire this year. Others may follow in the near future. Including Rehnquist, two justices are in their 80s and two more are in their 70s.
Even though a plurality of Americans consider themselves pro-choice, pro-lifers appear to have made progress in the past decade. The partial-birth abortion debate may have played a significant role.
In the poll, 53 percent said abortion should be "legal under certain circumstances," 23 percent "legal under any circumstances" and 22 percent "illegal in all circumstances."
But in September 1995, the numbers were much different -- 31 percent saying abortion should always be legal and only 12 percent saying it should always be illegal. Later that year, the House and Senate passed a bill banning partial-birth abortion, which was vetoed by President Clinton in April 1996.
The debate over the gruesome procedure may have swayed some minds. By July 1996, the numbers began to change, with 25 percent -- a drop of six percentage points -- saying abortion should always be legal. Since then, the "legal under any circumstances" category hasn't reached 30 percent -- even though it was in the 30s in every poll between 1990 and 1995.
Partial-birth abortion is a practice whereby an unborn baby is partially delivered, feet first, until only the head is left in the birth canal. The baby's brains are then suctioned out, killing the child.
Gallup did not mention partial-birth abortion as being a cause for the changing numbers but did note the shift in public position.
"[T]he percentage saying abortion should be illegal in all circumstances has been inching up in the last few years -- from 15 percent in 2000 to 22 percent today -- but this is the first time since 1985 that this extreme anti-abortion view has been essentially at parity with the extreme pro-abortion rights position," Saad wrote.
She added that the country views abortion differently than it did the last time a Republican president nominated a justice for the Supreme Court.
"[T]here is no doubt that the landscape has changed since the last two times a Republican president filled a Supreme Court vacancy -- in 1990 and 1991, when President George H. W. Bush nominated David Souter and Clarence Thomas, respectively," Saad wrote. "Compared to the early 1990s ... Americans today are much less likely to say abortion should be legal under any circumstance, and more likely to say that it should be illegal in all circumstances.[/i]